Publicado o texto n.º 47 da Série de Estudos Econômicos do CAEN
Data da publicação: 4 de maio de 2023 Categoria: Notícias, Série de Estudos EconômicosA Série de Estudos Econômicos do CAEN publica textos produzidos pelos docentes do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia (CAEN/UFC) sobre temas da atualidade cujo propósito é motivar a leitura e incentivar a participação da comunidade acadêmica através de contribuições acerca de determinado objeto de estudo.
Em abril de 2023, disponibilizamos o texto a seguir para leitura:
SEEC-47 – On the time-frequency dynamics of growth cycles in Brazil
Autores: Paulo Matos, Douglas Alves e Valdeir Monteiro
Resumo: We add to the empirical literature on growth, by addressing instrumentalized comovements between growth versus fiscal, monetary, and credit variables in Brazil. We use partial wavelet coherency, phase-difference diagram, and regression coefficient to model growth cycles’ reaction to isolated fluctuations in net debt to GDP, primary balance to GDP, inflation, SELIC, household, and enterprise credit to GDP over time and across frequencies. We provide a set of new stylized facts about the history of growth in Brazil over the period from 2004q1 and 2022q4, during which the country has gone through three different recessions. We find that in the periods of expansion, primary balance cycles lead in-phase growth cycles, while inflationary and household credit cycles lead outof-phase growth cycles. During the recessions, we find a relevant positive role played by enterprise credit, and a negative leadership of SELIC cycles on economic growth cycles.
Palavras-chave: Co-movements in the time-frequency domain; Transmission channel; Fiscal, and monetary policies; Credit market; Recession and expansion periods.
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