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Nº33 – A Note on the Effect of Decomposing Credit on Explaining Brazilian Cross-State GDP Growth
Authors: Paulo Rogério Faustino Matos; Davi Albuquerque Vieira dos Santos
We add to the literature on financial system and development by proposing an empirical
exercise to better understand the channels through which credit drivers are able or not to
promote economic growth. Methodologically, we estimate an extend version in difference of
Barro-style growth panel regression. We measure the individual impact on the Brazilian
cross-state GDP growth from 2003 to 2017 of household credit, enterprise credit and
government credit, controlling for exports, imports, years of schooling, current and capital
government expenditures. We find that Brazilian cross-state growth depends more on the
evolution of household credit than on credit to firms. We claim that regardless of the benefits
due to household credit, we need to better understand the behavior of this insolvent
economic growth driver, given its prominent role in the credit market. We also highlight the
negative role played by government credit to GDP given by the significant elasticity of -0.87.